So what's next for GPS? Here's my short list of GPS predictions for 2010:
- Prices will stabilize somewhat (they'll continue to drop, but not at the same rate observed in 2009)
- Garmin will release an iPhone App version of its popular nuvi GPS software
- Garmin will reduce the overall number of PND units it sells, clarifying differences between models
- Smartphone-based GPS navigation will grow at a much faster rate than PNDs, eventually becoming the most prevalent GPS platform
- PNDs will always have a place in the market. Some buyers will want the improved interface, larger screen, and louder speaker that a smartphone cannot provide
- Connected GPS units will become more popular. Monthly service fees will be offset by ads
- Location-based advertising will improve, and will be pervasive within the next 3 years
- RIM's acquisition of Dash Navigation will not lead to a new Dash device. Instead, RIM will release it's own, business-friendly GPS navigation app for Blackberry devices
- Mitac will sell Magellan, which will mark the 4th time Magellan has changed owners in as many years
- Garmin will focus more on innovation, and developing new high-end GPS features (for which it can charge a premium), instead of maintaining feature lockstep with TomTom and Magellan and engaging in a race to zero profits for low-end units
- GPS units with mobile TV functionality will remain limited to Asian markets
- Google's Android phone will be disappointing, and likely won't take much share from the iPhone or PND market
- We can expect at least 5 stories of people who followed GPS instructions straight off a cliff or into a body of water
- Similarly, we will continue to see local newspapers report that thieves like to steal GPS units out of parked cars
- 4.0-inch screens will replace 3.5-inch screens. 4.7-inches or 5.0-inches will become the new "widescreen" standard size
- Monthly service fees associated with GPS tracking devices will come down, settling somewhere around the $10/month rate by the end of 2010
- NAVTEQ and Tele Atlas stock prices will plummet as Google crowdsources better maps (for free)
- Connected GPS units will allow users to send Twitter and Facebook updates
- Traffic data will remain unreliable, and not worth spending additional money on when buying a new GPS
- Augmented reality will be the next big innovation in turn-by-turn navigation
Those are my top 20 predictions. You've all got 364 days to prove me wrong.
Google has already made its own maps by driving a fleet of vehicles everywhere. The thing they are crowd sourcing is traffic information. Traffic data is currently mostly useless since it only covers very major roads and hence doesn't help you decide if taking a non-major road would be useful.
It will also be interesting to see how the units start becoming more than just for cars (eg covering walking and public transport). They could make it so the GPS car unit works together with your smart phone. It can use the phone for data connections (and GPS if going cheap) effectively becoming a large convenient display, Once you leave your vehicle the smart phone can continue to do your foot and public transport navigation.
(I realise Garmin already has walking/public transport functionality in some newer units but it isn't particularly useful yet.)
I'd like to bring up some points.
13. Many people in and around my area that rely on Google Maps have been routed to a dairy farm when they told Google Maps to give them directions to a dentist's office in the same town as the dairy farm. 1 down, 4 to go. :)
15. I'd says that 4.3 inch screen will replace 3.5 inch screens. I haven't really seen any PNDs with 4.0 inch screens.
the low end is where most people buy. I dont think there will be many people going to the very high end, as you wait half year and other companies will catch up.Megellen also needs to drop windows core and switch to linux so it doesnt crash as often
I don't know if Magellan is able to do things the other ones can't do, because it is running Windows. The "ding" before a turn. Come up with the next logical or closest city with just 1 letter. Give you 4 routing options without having to go to menu options to get it. I like these options. That is why I live with the occasional reboot.
Fletch
Hope you had a good time at CES.
I agree with some of your predictions but not all.
Your prediction about Magellan / Mitac maybe premature
"Mitac will sell Magellan, which will mark the 4th time Magellan has changed owners in as many years"
Mitac who also owns Synnex corp distribution have been around a long time and they build companies very slowly but they are successful.
Unlike Thales or Shah and even Orbital science all did not invest in Magellan properly, they just wish to flip the company while Synnex Mitac plans to be around for a while, remember they also own NavMan and Mio. They have a grown market in the world and Magellan just need time to readjust from what Shah got Magellan into.
Don't count Magellan out yet.
"Google's Android phone will be disappointing, and likely won't take much share from the iPhone or PND market"
I think Google phone will be the bench mark, Apple will not give up easily but they are both aggressive companies and will product better cheaper products. Competition is good.
"NAVTEQ and Tele Atlas stock prices will plummet as Google crowdsources better maps (for free)"
I don't agree Fletch, NavTeq and TA will soon be paying the GPS manufacturers for carrying their maps on board and off set the cost by ads from POI's much like yellow pages. It's a changing world but these companies are not going away any time soon.
I have my own predictions but this is your forum.
I continue to think that as long as cell phone carriers charge for GPS services, there will be a market for Stand alone GPS. Since people will also want a larger screen, that is another reason that stand alone GPs will still exist.
What have you heard about the Cydle T43H GPS? I saw the site but it could just be a great marketing job. Good or bad ?
"Google's Android phone will be disappointing, and likely won't take much share from the iPhone or PND market" Are you crazy, or maybe you are payed by Garmin?
My guess is - it will be vice versa. iPhone or crappy/buggy (nobody knows code) software from Garmin/Magellan/etc will die slowly. Who needs such badly written software as Garmin has or most of PND stuffed with. Why not to go for open source one? With Android you are free to choose hardware you want/like or have money to buy.