The biggest tension is that you want the largest possible screen on a nav device and you want cellphones to be as small as possible.

If someone figures out a wireless display and touchscreen protocol similar in spirit to BlueTooth then I can see the phone doing all the heavy lifting and communications and the car having a large "dumb" display to let you interact.

I respectfully disagree with you Fletch and so does most PND manufacturers such as Garmin, TomTom and Magellan.
There is something to learn about DVD and the cost of hardware and mapping rights. It may cost pennies to duplicate a DVD and most of the money goes towards marketing and movie rights.
Unlike PND where there is hardware cost and constant development cost and support for the product and the only way to make a buck it to put them in phones and charge a monthly service charge.
Ask your self this question? who is the largest camera manufacturer? Cannon, Nikon, Sony, Pentax? No it is Nokia and who carries a camera anymore when they can take a picture with their phone.
Why do you think Garmin is coming out with the NuviFone end of Q209? because they have to stay competitive when the PND sales slows down.
With that said, I see no more than 2 years left for PND market.
This year they predict sales of upward of 20-21M PND sales in NA, I would say probably be around 17-18M if we are lucky and this is the reason why you will see a bunch of units being dumped at cost by the manufacturers this Q4.
GPS manufacturers such as Magellan are no longer making the profit they need to and the cost is actually getting more expensive as they offer cheaper PND products, it takes the same amount of time to provide customer support for a $149 unit customer as it does for a $799 unit, the box and shipping is the same, the mapping software cost the same so go figure what is really being saved by the manufacturers? Some PND manufacturers are expecting to work with single digit profit margins and no company can keep that up for very long.
As far as display size, think iPhone or NuviFone with a 3.5" display, it is big enough for most consumers.
Keep this post and post it again in two years Fletch.

I think for now the PNDs are in good shape, but I think once someone puts out a good turn by turn navigation for the iPhone and large screen phones like it, perhaps the PND might begin to suffer. For now the cell phone based GPS programs just aren't up to snuff.

The death of the PND market has been greatly exaggerated. If anything, the market will shrink but it's not going to die off completely. There will always be a need for full-featured dedicated devices that perform a crucial function better than anything else. Right tools for the job and all that. Cell phone integration is inevitable, but so is the clumsy implementation that comes with it. If the way cameras have worked out on these devices are any indication, I'd say PNDs will be around for years to come, especially on the high end. That's a guess, but only because it makes sense that eventually cell phones will be competitive with bottom-rung, stripped-down basic GPS devices. The high-end is where you'll have to go to get a real GPS in your car.

Today PNDs are suited to navigate roads and cities, where a cell phone would be logical on foot to find something a few blocks away at the spur of the moment. It doesn't cut it in a car because it's slow, small, and awkward. Could a cell phone double as a complete PND solution? Anything's possible, but as phones haven't been able to completely replace dedicated cameras, I'd say PNDs are not going anywhere. The reason is because cell phone integration demands all sorts of compromises between battery life, size, interface, ect. Often, these are opposing forces, and this is why integrated cameras include only bare-bones functionality. Consider also that integration is left up to cell phone manufactures with experience in making phones, not cameras or PNDs - at the end of the day, all these "devices" have to play nice together, except that they don't always do just that precisely on account of specific expertise lacking with regard to the subject from Motorola, ect..

Who carries a camera around anymore? Why, nobody of course. Just journalists, insurance adjusters, real estate agents, forensic investigators, and contractors for a start. You can add anyone who wants/needs archive quality photos of important events with family to that list in a heartbeat. Kodak and their competition is still around for a very good reason, and they're not going anywhere.

Garmin & co. will have to adapt, but vacating the PND market entirely is simply unrealistic even in the long term. Garmin can maintain their core business in addition to expanding into phones. The move to offer custom mounts for Ford, BMW, ect. for an economical navigation alternative that still looks factory is a great idea too.

There's going to be a market for a real, refined, and mature GPS device for a good long time, just as consumers continue to create demand for a real camera when the situation calls for it. It might shrink, but it won't die.

You wouldn't catch me paying for any data plan for a cell phone, paying for the roaming charges while travelling back and forth between US and CAN. Cell phone providers want you to believe that you can't live without a full feature service package and the coolest new phone but the extra thousands of dollars to navigate by phone is too stiff for me.
I want a BIG screen for safety and large buttons for my manly hands. I want it to play my mp3s and my bluetooth connected phone over my stereo, direct me to my destination with a pleasing and customizable voice, be super easy to quickly enter or search for destinations, not have to rely on any sort of cell or data signal to operate in wilderness areas, not be tied to some monthly service plan, AND must operate HANDS FREE to comply with new laws in CAN. restricting use of any electronic device to hands free and mounted to the dash. My bluetooth phone will even voice dial hands free thru my GPS.
Personally I can't wait to upgrade my Nuvi 760 to a higher end model to get even more use from it. The only thing stopping me from getting a 7x5 or 8xx nuvi is the fact I love this unit right now and it is costing me NOTHING to continue with it. Top line cell phones are cool, but are no threat as yet to replacing PND's or digital cameras. I took 3000 pics this year and nothing from our phones made the cut. Best use for them is in case of an accident and you need some quick verification of evidence.
Use the right tool for the job.
Some people are wizzards on their phones, but even they will some day be wrappped around a powerpole squinting at their superphone.

Denuvi, there is not enough people like you that are willing to carry a cell phone, a PND, a camera etc.
Also, with VOIP cell phones in the near future, the cell phone industry will also be very competitive.
I did not say the PND business will disappear, but what I did say is that the growth will no longer be there and it is a matter of return on investments that these PND manufacturers must justify to their investors.
At the current $149-$199 price point, there is not enough margin

There are advantages, at least potentially, for cell phone navigation, but cell phone navigation is at the mercy of your connection speed, since there is no onboard map information. In an ideal world, cell phone maps would have the latest information with no waiting for upgrades, and the largest, most up-to-date POI database. But until you can get the map information faster, it won't compete with PNDs, at least not in cars.

Tou are all forgetting about HUDs. In the next couple of years all luxury cars will come with a beautifull Head Up Display on their windshields. It will be programmable so that you can have any data you like displayed. Then another couple of years later all medium priced cars will have them. Check out Microvision

You all forgot that we are not just talking about vehicle navigation anymore, we are talking about navigation including the last mile on foot, so pedestrian navigation to a business or sport stadium seat will be done with a GPS enabled phone and or a PND, so if you have the option of carrying one unit or two, which would you carry? a phone or PND or both?
With the future of PND being off set by commercials when the vehicle is not moving, it will be much like TV shows now, you don't pay for the monthly service but have to suffer through the commercials when your vehicle is not moving at a stop sign or light.
I been in the GPS business for over 12 years and attend many conferences that discuss this type of change, and what I can tell you is due to the extremely low price point consumer expect, that it will be next to impossible to make a profit and move the volumes that is necessary for these GPS manufacturers to make any sense of it.
Garmin is forced into the NuviFone model and have to sell through service providers instead of their own dealership network.
With that said, we will still have PND around, but it is not going to be as exciting as the past few years, with less innovation and more focus on price, it is sad to see this day come but with the economy in the condition that it is now, these GPS manufacturers are just dumping all their products on the market at almost cost so they wont get stuck with them.
It is an ugly business and they will sell GPS out of 7-11's

The iPhone probably comes closest today to a cellphone that could replace a dedicated GPS. As it improves and expands its GPS abilities I would expect to see Garmin or others offering their software for installation on the iPhone and iPod Touch.

My real question is the future of factory-installed GPS. I have not seen one that allows the flexibility of a portable GPS. Automakers limit the ability to add your own POIs and to update the maps. Other than the neatness factor and reduced theft problem why would I pay the >$1000 cost?

Fletch got it right.

One of the big problems even for PNDs is that many are not loud enuff at HWY speeds.

I am not the most familiar with the iPhone, but with TTS being in huge demand, I wonder how PDAs will fare when having to compete with PNDs with loud speakers, 3D contour and landmark mapping, Reality view etc.

The death of the PND is greatly exaggerated!

The Eclipse AVN2210p head unit includes a dock for a portable TomTom GPS navigation system and the Alpine pairs its second-generation Blackbird portable nav with the IVA-W205 head unit Alpine Dock 'n Roll.

Here is the problem folks, NavTeq charges way more for the factory install vehicle nav units than the PND and in doing so, they are forcing the cost to be more for factory or after market install GPS units. Any GPS that requires installation or to be connected to a VSS wire is charged much more by the mapping companies because they can roll the price of the GPS in with the vehicle financing and people are willing to pay more for a larger display integrated unit with possibly review camera option.

I know the factories is looking for a sub $500 system that they can install in every vehicle, the good news is Honda is now installing GPS in their low end Civic and it will not be to long before they will offer a portable PND that can be dock in the head unit as a vehicle Nav and also to be used as a pedestrian PND to go the last mile.

I am sure Garmin is working on a solution for this also.

As far as speaker volume, the iPhone speaker sucks but if they enable the unit to utilize the vehicle stereo speakers, I think it will be fine.

Thank very much for the reviews and I have learnt a lot.

Hope see some reviews on UMPC GPS, such as Fujitsu Lifebook U820 which has a size slightly bigger than Nuvi 765T and have a built in Garmin Mobile GPS. Which one to buy, 765T or U820? :-)

Gary

The problem with those people predicting the death of the PND is that they're not the average consumer. The average consumer would rather carry a free, lower-tech cell phone and leave a sub-$100 PND in the car than spend $400 or so on an iPhone with a state-of-the-art GPS app running on it. (Or pay a monthly fee for GPS services.)