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January 1, 2010

My Top 20 GPS Predictions for 2010

So what's next for GPS? Here's my short list of GPS predictions for 2010:

  1. Prices will stabilize somewhat (they'll continue to drop, but not at the same rate observed in 2009)
  2. Garmin will release an iPhone App version of its popular nuvi GPS software
  3. Garmin will reduce the overall number of PND units it sells, clarifying differences between models
  4. Smartphone-based GPS navigation will grow at a much faster rate than PNDs, eventually becoming the most prevalent GPS platform
  5. PNDs will always have a place in the market. Some buyers will want the improved interface, larger screen, and louder speaker that a smartphone cannot provide
  6. Connected GPS units will become more popular. Monthly service fees will be offset by ads
  7. Location-based advertising will improve, and will be pervasive within the next 3 years
  8. RIM's acquisition of Dash Navigation will not lead to a new Dash device. Instead, RIM will release it's own, business-friendly GPS navigation app for Blackberry devices
  9. Mitac will sell Magellan, which will mark the 4th time Magellan has changed owners in as many years
  10. Garmin will focus more on innovation, and developing new high-end GPS features (for which it can charge a premium), instead of maintaining feature lockstep with TomTom and Magellan and engaging in a race to zero profits for low-end units
  11. GPS units with mobile TV functionality will remain limited to Asian markets
  12. Google's Android phone will be disappointing, and likely won't take much share from the iPhone or PND market
  13. We can expect at least 5 stories of people who followed GPS instructions straight off a cliff or into a body of water
  14. Similarly, we will continue to see local newspapers report that thieves like to steal GPS units out of parked cars
  15. 4.0-inch screens will replace 3.5-inch screens. 4.7-inches or 5.0-inches will become the new "widescreen" standard size
  16. Monthly service fees associated with GPS tracking devices will come down, settling somewhere around the $10/month rate by the end of 2010
  17. NAVTEQ and Tele Atlas stock prices will plummet as Google crowdsources better maps (for free)
  18. Connected GPS units will allow users to send Twitter and Facebook updates
  19. Traffic data will remain unreliable, and not worth spending additional money on when buying a new GPS
  20. Augmented reality will be the next big innovation in turn-by-turn navigation

Those are my top 20 predictions. You've all got 364 days to prove me wrong.