
So what's next for GPS? Here's my short list of GPS predictions for 2010:
- Prices will stabilize somewhat (they'll continue to drop, but not at the same rate observed in 2009)
- Garmin will release an iPhone App version of its popular nuvi GPS software
- Garmin will reduce the overall number of PND units it sells, clarifying differences between models
- Smartphone-based GPS navigation will grow at a much faster rate than PNDs, eventually becoming the most prevalent GPS platform
- PNDs will always have a place in the market. Some buyers will want the improved interface, larger screen, and louder speaker that a smartphone cannot provide
- Connected GPS units will become more popular. Monthly service fees will be offset by ads
- Location-based advertising will improve, and will be pervasive within the next 3 years
- RIM's acquisition of Dash Navigation will not lead to a new Dash device. Instead, RIM will release it's own, business-friendly GPS navigation app for Blackberry devices
- Mitac will sell Magellan, which will mark the 4th time Magellan has changed owners in as many years
- Garmin will focus more on innovation, and developing new high-end GPS features (for which it can charge a premium), instead of maintaining feature lockstep with TomTom and Magellan and engaging in a race to zero profits for low-end units
- GPS units with mobile TV functionality will remain limited to Asian markets
- Google's Android phone will be disappointing, and likely won't take much share from the iPhone or PND market
- We can expect at least 5 stories of people who followed GPS instructions straight off a cliff or into a body of water
- Similarly, we will continue to see local newspapers report that thieves like to steal GPS units out of parked cars
- 4.0-inch screens will replace 3.5-inch screens. 4.7-inches or 5.0-inches will become the new "widescreen" standard size
- Monthly service fees associated with GPS tracking devices will come down, settling somewhere around the $10/month rate by the end of 2010
- NAVTEQ and Tele Atlas stock prices will plummet as Google crowdsources better maps (for free)
- Connected GPS units will allow users to send Twitter and Facebook updates
- Traffic data will remain unreliable, and not worth spending additional money on when buying a new GPS
- Augmented reality will be the next big innovation in turn-by-turn navigation
Those are my top 20 predictions. You've all got 364 days to prove me wrong.